"An election is the largest logistical operation that a country undertakes outside of warfare," said a consultant working for the UN. "The Iraqi commission just doesn't have the manpower." (link)

Lots of talk from the Bush Administration about the Iraq elections, but where's the action to back it up?

With less than eight weeks remaining before Iraq's national elections, preparations are so far behind it will be virtually impossible to carry off a proper vote, according to several consultants involved in the planning.

Although public attention has been focused on how to make the country safe for the Jan. 30 parliamentary election, logistical problems could undermine the vote just as seriously as the lack of security. Preparations are stalled on many levels, ranging from delays in hiring and training thousands of election workers to deciding what kind of ballots and ink to use.

"I just can't see how we can hold these elections," an American consultant working with Iraqi election planners said on the condition of anonymity. "We still don't know the rules. The ground rules are basic for any country, but the details have to be decided. That hasn't happened here yet."

One main concern is a lack of significant involvement from the United Nations. In other countries wracked by war, such as Afghanistan and Bosnia, the UN played a major organizing role. Here, the bulk of the planning is being done by the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, a nine-member body selected by UN specialists. But foreign consultants say the commission is understaffed, with only 500 workers hired to undertake the monumental task of setting up 9,000 polling places around the country and training about 40,000 Iraqis to staff them on election day.

"An election is the largest logistical operation that a country undertakes outside of warfare," said a consultant working for the UN. "The Iraqi commission just doesn't have the manpower."

Afghanistan comparison

In Afghanistan, which held its first-ever democratic election in October, the UN deployed about 600 international staff members, including 266 election experts. Of the 35 UN workers now in Iraq, only four are election specialists. The UN has promised to send another 25 experts into Iraq, but their arrival has been delayed by security concerns.

"The situation would be much different if the UN was playing a greater role," said a European consultant working with the Iraqis, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. "There would be a system in place by now."

President George W. Bush said as recently as Tuesday in a speech to U.S. troops in California that the elections must proceed as planned. And election officials here insist Iraqis will be able to go to the polls on Jan. 30 to choose provincial councils and a 275-member National Assembly charged with appointing a central government and drafting a permanent constitution.

"We will be ready to hold the elections on time," said Farid Ayar, the commission's spokesman, speaking by phone from Baghdad. "We are making all the necessary preparations."

Three American groups -- the International Foundation of Election Systems, the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute -- are helping the Iraqis with preparations, including the training of poll workers. But the final decision on myriad practical problems rests with the Iraqi commission.

Much to be decided

Among the crucial preparations that have been delayed or are still undecided, according to the consultants:

Recruitment and training of the 40,000 workers needed to staff polling places. So far, several thousand workers have been trained and most were flown to neighboring Jordan to ensure their safety during the weeklong training sessions. In order to staff each of the 9,000 polling sites with four or five workers, the pace of training has to be dramatically accelerated. And because many details have to be worked out, those trained workers may need retraining. "It's very difficult to train Iraqi poll workers, because many of the ground rules are not set yet," said the American consultant.

Registration. The registration period was supposed to be from Nov. 1 to Dec. 15, but election officials do not know how many of Iraq's 15 million eligible voters have registered so far and it is unclear whether those who have not registered will be able to cast a ballot by showing up at polling places Jan. 30 with proper identification.

Iraqis are supposed to register in their area of residence, which is determined by their UN food ration card. Registration efforts have not even started in Anbar province, home to the Sunni Muslim cities of Fallujah and Ramadi, where insurgents were entrenched for months before being driven out by a major U.S. offensive last month. In Mosul, a northern city where insurgents also have a strong presence, a warehouse full of registration forms was set ablaze last month.

Election officials have made contradictory statements about whether Iraqis will be able to vote without being pre-registered. The consultants say the commission is waiting to see how many people register by Dec. 15 before it decides whether to allow registration on election day.

"If there are people who are not on the voter register, they can come with two pieces of identification and they can register to vote," the commission's chairman, Hussain Hindawi, told a UN publication on Nov. 24. "The pieces of identification have to be things like a passport, or a card showing their military service." But Ayar, the commission's spokesman, said registration would not be allowed Jan. 30. "People have to register ahead of time in order to vote," he said. "They can't just show up and vote. They have to be on the voter lists."

Voting sites. A critical issue for people in Fallujah, Ramadi and other "Sunni Triangle" cities where the registration process has been disrupted by violence -- and where polling sites are likely to be targeted by insurgents -- is whether they will be able to vote in other places.

Some U.S. military and Iraqi officials claim that people in Sunni cities who register by Dec. 15 will be able to vote elsewhere, but commission officials deny that. "You have to register and vote in the city in which you live," Ayar said. Already, many Sunni political groups are calling for a delay in the elections, and a boycott if they go ahead as scheduled. Many Iraqis fear an election without significant Sunni participation would lack legitimacy.

The ballots. Indelible ink, which would mark voters' hands for several days and prevent them from voting twice, was used in most of Afghanistan's polling sites to prevent fraud, but in Iraq such a mark could keep voters away for fear of being targeted by insurgents.

"Indelible ink will be sprayed on voters' fingers to show they have voted," Hindawi told the UN publication. "They would have to cut off a finger to get rid of the ink." The European consultant suggested election officials "could use an invisible ink" to keep people from becoming easy targets. That would mean "polling stations would have to be outfitted with special scanners to detect the ink so there's no double-voting. ... I'm not sure that we have time to put that system in place."

Police presence. U.S. and Iraqi officials have said coalition forces will provide the bulk of security at election sites, with support from the Iraqi police and army. There is some question about what safeguards would be applied to keep Iraqi police from intimidating voters.

More broadly, the consultants noted, there has been little time to educate the Iraqi public about the mechanics of a democratic election. In Cambodia, for example, the UN educated voters for nearly a year before 1993 elections. In Iraq, there are signs that voters don't even understand what they are going to vote for. A recent poll by the International Republican Institute found 40 percent of Iraqis think they will be voting for a president, rather than a parliament.

"In a country that has never had real elections before, the first election sets a lot of expectations," said the European consultant. "So if this one goes badly, people will turn away from democracy."

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